Barley acreage has dropped 65pc and wheat has jumped 25pc this winter crop season at Wise Farming as the growers pivot to premium grades for better returns.
When Murray and Janette Wise and son Lance started sowing in mid-May at their Bowenville farm, lower protein feed grade barley and wheat for the local livestock market were sitting at about $355 a tonne.
Higher protein classifications like Australian Prime Hard 2 wheat for the bread and noodle market, however, offered a $100/t premium into Brisbane.
The gap has since narrowed, but it was enough to convince the growers.
"We're going into more wheat now that they're paying for protein again," Murray said.
"Hopefully the price will be up around $400/t when we get to harvest."
Lance said about five years ago, buyers stopped paying a premium for protein, prompting them to go "wall-to-wall barley".
"There was no premium in trying to get prime hard wheat," he said.
"This year, we'll definitely try to get prime hard out of the wheat, otherwise we've got markets we can put the feed wheat into."
To achieve higher protein, more nitrogen fertiliser is required to fulfil the higher demand.
The dryland growers focus on sorghum, wheat and barley at 1650ha Avalon, Bowenville, east of Dalby, but add in canola when price and weed control will benefit them.
This year they sowed a 1170ha program, starting with 270ha of 45Y95CL and PY520TC canola in mid-April.
This was followed by 560ha of Sunblade wheat and 340ha of Maximus CL barley from mid-May to late May.
That's compared to the 2022 season, when they seeded 450ha of wheat and 1000ha of barley.
While their total acreage is back, the predictions of an El Nino bringing drier and warmer conditions hasn't scared them off.
"This year's winter crop is a little bit down but that's because we started a bit more summer crop last year," Lance said.
"It is definitely drying up. From November last year, it has been pretty ordinary really, but we've still got pretty good subsoil moisture from heavy falls in March, so a couple of in-crop falls will help us out.
"I think the seasons are going back to normal and you don't know if you're going to get an average rainfall or bugger all, so you have to be careful what you do and how much you forward sell.
"But that could all change by August and we can see what the potential is. We might sell half of it straight away and see what it comes out at.
"You've just got to work with it. Especially if you're dryland - you can't do anything about it. You've got to roll with it and if it hits the ground, it hits the ground, and if it doesn't, well, there's always next season."
However the wheat and barley ends up, they are surrounded by feedlots willing to take feed grade crop, including Sandalwood, Wonga Plains, Kurrawong, Whaka, Kerwee, Wainui and Maguires.
In terms of marketing canola, the oilseed's production is forecast to drop 37pc to 1.14 million tonnes in NSW, according to ABARES.
A dry season in the border regions could mean higher demand for the small amount of Queensland crop.
When it comes time to harvest the canola, the Wises will have to decide if it's worth sending it south to Cargill's Newcastle plant to be crushed for oil or if they save on freight and put it into feedstock.
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