BoM clears the fog on climate reporting at AgForce update

The comments rose when University of Southern Queensland and Bureau of Meteorology climate scientist Andrew Marshall spoke as part of an AgForce seasonal forecast workshop at the Western Downs town.

Dr Marshall, who's been with the bureau for 20 years, said there had been lots of frustration expressed about its forecasting in the last six months, which had resulted from interpretations of its data that hadn't reflected what happened.

"In the middle of last year we heard that El Nino was starting to build," he said.

"That brings typically drier than normal conditions in winter and spring seasons but after that, it has very little influence on the weather.

"We heard the term 'hot and dry' being used. That wasn't put out by the bureau but it was the message we saw on social media."

Dr Marshall shared maps of both the BoM three-month forecast from August to October and what happened to emphasise his point, that what the bureau forecast and what was observed matched closely.

He also said it was important for people to go to the source of information rather than react to headlines.

One comment from the audience was that people were hooked into mainstream media, saying that as far as he was concerned, the only thing the bureau did wrong last year was not respond quickly to the hype spreading through those channels.

"The BoM needed to quell the hyped-up message," he said.

Another commented that people used mobile phones for information, and algorithms reinforced what they were reading.

"Before you knew it, people were dumping cattle left, right and centre," he said.

Suncorp's western Queensland district manager Kate Drury was part of the afternoon workshop and commented that a worrisome aspect of the scenario was that a lot of specialists, such as grain traders, also responded to the predicted drought headlines.

Dr Marshall said an unusual situation had occurred late last year when usually warm oceans around Australia resulted in more moisture than usual.

"Because it's a fast-moving thing, we can't pick that up two months out," he said. "The key message is, there's a whole range of influences on the weather, and it's important to check forecasts regularly on the BoM site - they can change over time."

Asked how the bureau's forecasts got turned into full-blown drought predictions, Dr Marshall said the message tended to become confused when consumers could find so many resources that give weather information.

"Forecasts might lean one way but they can change over time - you have to keep on checking," he said.

He took attendees through the bureau's page to where its information was located, under the 'climate and weather' tab, and then into the 'climate driver update' area to look at the latest bureau thoughts on the possibility of a La Nina forming later in the year.

In a similar way, he emphasised that there was only a discussion about it returning, saying it was not a certainty yet.

"At this time of year, forecasting isn't as certain," he said. "And on balance, how does a La Nina translate to rainfall - if one is declared, we can't say, Australia is going to be wet."

The workshop, which was also held in Emerald and Dalby, heard from WFI representative Ahmad Qleibo about concerns over people under-insuring their assets, resulting additional costs and a financial burden if losses were experienced.

He sasid they'd noticed people weren't updating values on insurance policies.

Suncorp's Kate Drury explained how that then translated into trying to obtain finance from banks.

"Insurance premiums are upwards of 10 to 15 per cent of costs, and cashflows are quite tight," she said. "We're making people aware of conversations we have to have as banks."

Ms Drury said they also saw quite a bit of over-insurance.