THE BUREAU of Meteorology has confirmed the strong La Nina weather event, which had a big impact in triggering the record breaking spring rainfall over eastern and southern parts of the country, is slowly breaking down.
In its latest La Nina update, the Bureau said the event was still in place in the Pacific Ocean but was slowly weakening.
The Bureau forecasts that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures will warm towards neutral levels over coming weeks, with changes in the atmosphere also tipped to head towards the neutral phase.
However, Bureau officials cautioned that accuracy in predicting change in the El Nino Southern Oscillation index at this time of year was low so ENSO outlooks made in January should be treated with caution.
Those looking for drier conditions are warned La Nina is not the only driver of wet weather, with the BOM saying the Southern Annular Mode is currently set up at present to deliver wet summer conditions in parts of the country.
The SAM is currently strongly positive and will remain that way until at least mid-January.
The Bureau said during summer, a positive SAM increases the chance of above-average rainfall for eastern New South Wales, eastern Victoria and north-east Tasmania, while lowering the chance of rainfall for western Tasmania.
In the tropics the Madden-Julian Oscillation has been in the western Pacific since late December and is forecast to move into the Atlantic in the coming days.
Sea surface temperatures remain warmer than average in the western Pacific, much of the Maritime Continent, and around northern Australia.
Warmer Australian waters, especially in the tropics, can result in greater evaporation, humidity, cloudiness, and rainfall.