The return of regular rain in recent weeks across Australia's east and west coasts will see wheat production forecasts consolidate comfortably above 30 million tonnes.
A band of storms and showers across southern Queensland and northern NSW delivered season shaping moisture for many farmers. Much of central Queensland and southern Queensland cropping areas have received 20-30 millimetres so far in August with the chance of more to come.
Even heavier rains have been recorded in north western NSW so far this month. Towns including Walgett, Moree, Mungindi, and Narrabri have received general falls ranging from 30mm to more than 60mm in the first two weeks of August.
Southern NSW, Victoria and SA have also received valuable August rainfall.
Widespread soaking rain across WA's cropping areas has put the state's grain farmers in reach of another 20mt grain harvest. In a recent crop update, the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA) listed its combined grain, oilseed and pulse forecast to 19.4mt. It is below last year's record 24mt, although GIWA said the state's second ever 20mt harvest is still possible if the favourable weather continues.
If achieved, it will be the third consecutive season Australia's national wheat crop has exceeded 30mt, a feat only accomplished once before this golden streak kicked off in 2021-22.
The national grain production bonanza coincides with a rare, three consecutive La Nina events that have delivered wetter winter and spring weather across large parts of Australia.
And the wet weather is set to continue, according to the Bureau of Meteorology's climate update released last week. Much of Australia is likely to see above average rainfall in the second half of August, it said. The wetter than normal pattern is expected to continue through September to November, the bureau said.
United States Department of Agriculture raised its forecast for Australia's 2022-23 wheat harvest by 3mt to 33mt in last week's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. USDA also raised its forecast for Russian wheat production by 6.5mt to a record large 88mt.
Black Sea grain exports are improving after the safe corridor deal with Russia and Ukraine. Questions remain over how much grain Russia can export while many of the West's financial sanctions remain in place.
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