Spring rain to offer the perfect finish

Areas stretching from southern Queensland, NSW and Victoria are expected to see totals of 15-30mm with isolated falls of more than 50mm.

The Bureau of Meteorology's quantitative weather model is forecasting 20-50mm for southern Queensland with some of the heaviest totals around Goondiwindi. History shows that soaking rains in September result in bumper harvests, as seen in 2016 and 2010.

A late September soaking is gold for wheat and barley crops, as it means the well above average yield potential established during the winter will be realised. It's perfect timing for winter crops across southern Queensland and northern NSW which were looking for a finishing rain to top-off a near perfect season.

Realisation of the forecast rain could see Queensland wheat production climb above 2 million tonnes for only the second time. More broadly, the general rain across eastern Australia, coupled with forecast showers for WA is also likely to ensure the national wheat harvest exceeds 30mt for a second consecutive season.

Global grain importers will be happy to see a big Australian grain harvest after disappointing harvests in the United States, Canada, Russia and Europe.

It's being reported that China cancelled some of its French wheat purchases after a wet harvest downgraded a significant proportion of the crop to feed quality. China has reportedly stepped up its Australian wheat purchases after the French wheat cancellations.

China may have already secured as much as 2mt of Australian wheat for the 2021/22 marketing year.

Australian barley may not be on China's shopping list any more, but wheat shipments haven't stopped. Australia has already shipped close to 2mt of wheat to China in the current 2020/21 season. It seems this will be repeated in the upcoming 2021/22 season which starts in October.

This heightened demand for Australian wheat and barley is unlikely to be limited to China. Shortfalls in Black Sea and European wheat and barley crops are expected to see more global buyers turn to Australian grain.

Early barley harvest in southern Queensland is under way with wheat still a few weeks off. Wheat and barley prices into the Darling Downs were steady at $332 and $297 a tonne.