Farmers' grain sales pick up ahead of harvest

A general 10-15mm of rain across the western Darling Downs and south western Queensland cropping regions early last week will ensure bumper wheat, barley and chickpea yields throughout southern Queensland. 2021 has been about as good as it gets for southern Queensland cropping areas, with most areas receiving 300-350mm of rainfall from March through to August.

Timing of the rain has been close to ideal. Soaking rains in autumn saturated paddocks and allowed for timely plantings with regular follow-up rainfall through the growing season. The ideal weather is being reflected in yield potential, with many southern Queensland farmers expecting record high yields that could match yields seen in northern NSW last year.

Forecasts for a wet spring are also conducive for the big crop outlook. The Bureau of Meteorology is projecting above average rainfall for eastern Australia. The main reason behind the wetter than normal outlook is the negative Indian Ocean Dipole, which is allowing plenty of moist air to move across the continent to the east coast.

The bureau is predicting the negative IOD will persist through the spring but said it was weaker than the last negative IOD even in 2016, which resulted in the wettest May-October on record.

ABARES is expected to lift its forecast for Queensland winter grain production when it releases the September Crop Report. Most are tipping the Queensland wheat crop will be the largest on record, topping 2 million tonnes. Barley and chickpea yields will also be strong.

Farmer selling has picked up in recent weeks with the big crop outlook and strong prices. New crop APW wheat is holding at around $345-350 into the Brisbane zone which is up $20-25 a tonne in the past month.

Adverse weather in North America and Russia is expected to see strong demand for Australian wheat through the 2021-22 season.

Statistics Canada will release its August crop estimates this week which will reflect the full impacts of the country's devastating drought. Wheat production is expected to come in around 22mt, down from last year's 35.2mt. Barley, canola and pulse production is also expected to be slashed.