Southern Qld farmers optimistic of big harvest

Timely painting times and regular rain through the growing season have allowed crops to flourish across south western Queensland and through the Darling Downs. Many farmers are saying crops are the best at the start of July since 2016, which ended up being a memorable season for the right reasons.

Few areas have missed out. Crops are thick and dense in the expansive cropping areas around Dirranbandi and Thallon where farmers are preparing for a second consecutive big harvest.

Additional rain last week will help consolidate the excellent start. Most of the western Darling Downs received a further 15-25mm of rain last week. Falls were lighter in the central and eastern Downs.

There are growing signs that much of Australia will experience unusually cold and wet weather this winter and spring, with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole emerging in recent weeks. Large parts of the eastern Indian Ocean are warmer than average, which can favour above average rainfall for parts of Australia.

Much of inland Australia received above average rainfall in June with the Bureau of Meteorology forecasting the wetter pattern is likely to continue into the spring.

Crop expectations are climbing on the back of the June rain and the favourable outlook.

ABARES is currently forecasting Australia's 2021 wheat crop at 27.8 million tonnes but others are already tipping a back-to-back crop of more than 30 million tonnes.

Grain prices remain steady for nearby deliveries but softer for October forward. Buyers are also comforted by the prospects of a big northern grain harvest in a few months.

New crop stockfeed wheat was down $5 at $300 delivered into the Darling Downs with barley also down $5 to $275.

Global grain markets continued with the volatility and chopping pattern last week. Rain through the US corn belt states put pressure on grain futures last week, although drought is still threatening crops in the northern US and Canadian Prairies.

Drought across much of north western US is described as the worst in decades. Hot, dry and windy weather has savaged the high protein spring wheat crops on both sides of the US and Canadian boarder.

It remains to be seen how this will impact Australian wheat prices.