A near ideal start to the winter cropping season in the two biggest production states has put Australia on the track of another big winter crop.
This was reflected in ABARES first detailed assessment for the 2021/22 winter crop outlook in its recently released June crop report.
National wheat production was projected at 27.8 million tonnes, only behind last year's 33.3mt crop, as well as 2016/17 and 2011/12. Increased plantings will see Australia's canola crop will climb to 4.2mt up from last year's 4.05mt. Australia's barley crop is projected at 10.4 million tonnes.
"Yield prospects in most cropping regions in NSW, WA and much of Queensland are very favourable given the favourable conditions at the beginning of the winter crop season and the outlook for winter rainfall," ABARES said.
ABARES forecast Queensland 2021 wheat production at 1.45mt up from last year's 1.1mt. Queensland wheat plantings were projected at 870,000 hectares, which would be largest in a decade.
Medium term weather forecasts are also encouraging and support the big winter crop projection. The Bureau of Meteorology's extended outlook points above average rainfall across inland Australia.
Local grain markets remain well supported in a mix of solid domestic demand, exporters short covering as well as the ongoing dry weather concerns in parts of Victoria and SA.
Strong feedlot demand is supported northern barley bids were $5-7 higher last week to $305-310 delivered Darling Downs. Stockfeed wheat bids were steady at $325-330 delivered into Downs locations.
Exporter short covering and dry weather is supporting grain prices in the south.
Last week's arctic blast delivered beneficial rain for NSW, north east Victoria and SA's Eyre Peninsula and the Mid North. Widespread rain over NSW will consolidate the perfect start to the 2021 wheat, barley and canola crops.
But the rain continues to elude farmers in Victoria's Wimmera, Mallee and SA's Murray Mallee where most areas received less than 10mm. Recent showery weather across Victoria has resulted in some patchy germinations across the state. All the cropping areas in north western Victoria extending into SA's Murray Mallee are desperate for a general 25mm of rain to fully germinate dry planted crops.
Victorian barley bids jumped $5 late last week after the disappointing rainfalls across the Wimmera and Mallee.
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