China threatens massive tariffs on Australian barley

A joint statement from Australian barley industry participants, including GrainGrowers and Grain Producers Australia, said they understood that China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) may impose tariffs of up to 80 per cent on all Australian barley as a result of the ongoing anti-dumping investigation.

MOFCOM has asked Australian barley producers and the Australian government to respond to the preliminary decision within 10 days. China has said it will make a final determination on the matter on or before May 19.

Australian farmers and industry members have staunchly and consistently defended claims of barley exports being dumped into China.

Claims that Australian barley is being dumped into export markets make little sense. Australian barley has been consistently some of the most expensive barley in the world, trading at sizeable premiums above other export origins including Ukraine, France and Canada.

Australian barley prices soared relative to global barley prices in the past two years when MOFCOM has been conducting its anti-dumping investigation, as supplies were redirected away from export markets into the drought-stricken areas of Queensland and NSW.

The news comes as a shock to farmers and traders who were hoping for a gradual easing of the trade restrictions from the anti-dumping investigation which Beijing initiated in late 2018.

China has been the major export destination for Australian barley for several years accounting for 40-70pc of total exports in recent years. At its peak, China imported close to 6 million tonnes of Australian barley in the 2016/17 marketing year for malting and feed purposes, according to the International Grains Council trade data.

The importance of the Chinese barley market to Australia means it will be difficult, if not impossible, to redirect all the intended exports to alternative markets. Saudi Arabia is the other large global barley importing country, but its imports have also been declining in recent years at the expense of more corn.

Many questions remain about the detail and timing of China's proposed import tariffs on Australian barley including the timing and duration.

Barley prices have tumbled after the news of the potential tariffs broke as traders reassess where they will be able to market supplies. New crop barley bids into Adelaide and Geelong have plunged by $25-30 a tonne.