TOTAL Australian canola production is likely to drop to its lowest levels since the drought season of 2008-09, falling to a total of just 1.96 million tonnes according to the most recent Australian Oilseeds Federation (AOF) forecast.
And canola crushers on the east coast are looking to shore up supply, with over 70 percent of this year’s crop likely to come from Western Australia.
NSW, Victoria and South Australia combined are likely to produce just 540,000t.
Last year Victoria alone produced 750,000t of canola.
A large number of hectares of the canola crop in the eastern states has been cut for hay because of a lack of moisture and frost, while other crops have been abandoned altogether and sprayed out or grazed.
AOF executive director Nick Goddard said there was still a large amount of uncertainty surrounding east coast production.
“There is a higher level of uncertainty for production in the eastern states due to varying estimates of the amount of area sprayed out, grazed or cut for silage and hay,” Mr Goddard said.
“Frost is also difficult to predict in terms of the extent of the damage.”
On the other side of the equation, October rain is likely to salvage some yield from crops that were otherwise slated to be abandoned, so Mr Goddard said it was difficult to get a real handle on likely production until the headers start rolling.
“The variability in yield potential across paddocks, farms and regions is huge depending on whether crops could access deep subsoil water and/or the timing of an extra 20–30 mm from storms,” he said.
In another small glimmer of hope for producers he said there had been no major heat events to cut yield potential, unlike last year where NSW was subject to extreme bouts of heat from late August onwards.
In NSW, Mr Goddard said the AOF estimated around 65pc of the canola crop planted was lost due to drought and spring frosts which has resulted in large areas cut for silage and hay.
He said over 95pc of the crop to be harvested would come from the South West Slopes the Southern and Central Tablelands, and the eastern Riverina.
“Fortunately these areas have received welcome rain in the past fortnight,” he said.
In Victoria the area now forecast to be harvested for grain is estimated at around 188,000 hectares, a reduction of 55pc on the area sown.
The season has been dry, with the exception being the Western District, where rainfall is around the local average.
In South Australia there will be around 150,000ha harvested, down from around 240,000 ha sown crop area.
Mr Goddard said there was uncertainty about the area cut for hay and the potential yield of the remaining crop, with the lower Eyre Peninsula and lower south-east likely to be the major production areas.
Through Western Australia, farmers are generally expecting close to average yields, in spite of a dry September and a series of frost events.