Southern Queensland grain prices moved sharply higher last week as buyers step up efforts to secure supplies as the dry weather concerns intensify.
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Stockfeed wheat bids into the Darling Downs rallied by $16 a tonne to $265, with new season’s wheat now into the mid $270s. Feed barley and sorghum also rallied. Feed barley into the Downs gained $13 to $256 while sorghum was steady at $262.
Farmer selling has slowed over several weeks, unsure of what the season holds and how much new season’s grain they will produce. Planting is advanced and crops are emerging, but farmers are acutely aware that good June rainfall will be critical to achieve average yields.
Grain prices in northern NSW edged higher last week, but gains were well short of those seen in Southern Queensland.
However, rainfall forecasts are showing little sign of improvement with no sign of any significant rainfall across any of Australia’s major grain cropping regions in the next 10 days.
Farmers are optimistic that chickpeas will still perform even if the dry weather persists. Chickpeas crops have been planted deep into the subsoil moisture. The deep tap roots on chickpeas means they are well equipped to access the good subsoil moisture reserves remaining from the remnants of Cyclone Debbie.
There are some signs of Ascochyta blight in chickpea in Southern Queensland, with agronomists reporting some early outbreaks. Agronomists are saying last year’s big chickpea planting has increased the chances of Ascochyta blight and have warned farmers to be vigilant.
Exporter demand for old crop chickpeas into Queensland and northern NSW packers remains strong. Old crop chickpeas into Brisbane were steady at $1030 a tonne while early slots for the new season’s harvest are fetching $890 a tonne.
Price outlooks for high protein wheat are improving on the back of crop concerns in the United States.
Early harvesting in the US hard red winter wheat crop has they may see below average proteins for a second consecutive season. Wheat harvesting in Kansas, the largest production state in the United States, will start in 7-10 days.
Spring wheat futures in the United States rallied to contract highs last week on worries about dry weather in the northern plains and poor crop conditions. Initial crop ratings for the hard red spring wheat crop, a high protein wheat which influences Australian APH values, were the lowest in several seasons. Conditions are expected to decline even further with warm, dry weather forecast through the north west for the next two weeks.
Drier weather has allowed Canadian farmers to make good seeding progress, although many areas are still well behind normal.
Global cash wheat values were mostly firmer last week on the back of some mild weather concerns.
Questions remain over the size of the 2017/18 Black Sea wheat crop after Russia’s ag ministry lowers its all grain production estimate by 5 million tonnes last week, from a previous 110 million tonnes to a range of 100 to 105 million tonnes.
Russian cash values have been creeping higher in recent weeks.
In Ukraine, the Ag Ministry said that frosts during May had not impacted production prospects, although there were reports of increasing worries about recent low rainfall.
