Queensland grain buyers are being forced to pay up for grain as farmers become reluctant sellers amid the dry weather. This is despite the massive winter crop where ABARES forecasting a record large combined wheat and barley crop for Queensland, more than 600,000 tonnes up on the previous year.
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Farmers have effectively shut up shop on selling grain until they weather conditions improve.
Central Queensland farmers have seen limited summer rainfall and the summer crop planting window is quickly drawing to a close. Emerald recorded just 165mm of summer rain compared to 420mm last year, and about 100mm below longer term averages.
The dry weather hasn’t allowed farmers to plant summer crops. Soils are parched and farmers require an early autumn drenching to convince them to plant latish summer crops. But this would be seasonally unusual, with the autumn rainfall across CQ, typically less than half of what seen in the summer months.
Farmers are already starting to look ahead to winter crops, bypassing the 2017 summer cropping season.
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology upgraded the chances of an El Nino forming later this year to 50/50 last week. The Bureau said the eastern Pacific Ocean has warmed over the last fortnight, driving many of its climate models towards the El Nino threshold over the next six months. Seven of eight international models surveyed by the Bureau indicate steady warming in the central tropical Pacific Ocean over the next six months. Six models suggest El Nino thresholds may be reached by July 2017.
Most of Southern Queensland recorded better summer rainfall than their CQ counterparts, but dry weather remains a concern. Much of Southern Queensland have recorded 100mm less rainfall since the start of 2017, and the rainfall deficiencies have been intensified by the extreme heat which has seen evaporation rates soar.
These areas will need a good soaking in the autumn to encourage winter crop plantings.
Australia exported record large volumes of wheat and barley in January, according to the ABS data released last week. ABS said that 2.5 million tonnes of wheat exported from Australia in January and 1.0 million tonnes of feed barley. Total monthly shipments of wheat, barley and canola in January exceeded 4.0 million tonnes for the first time driven by strong export demand.
More than a third of the wheat shipments went to India. Australia has shipped more than 1.3 million tonnes of wheat to India since the start of the 2016/17 season in October. Busy shipping line-ups for February and March suggest this pattern is set to continue for the next couple of months.
Although most of the Queensland grain crops are being consumed domestically, exports are increasing. There were 217,000 tonnes of wheat shipped from Queensland in January, the largest in about five years.
Queensland grain prices continued to firm last week with the dry forecast and reluctant famer selling.
Sorghum delivered into the Darling Downs was $5 higher at $250. Feed barley into the Downs jumped by $8 to $222, while stockfeed wheat gained $6 to $247.
