SURGING cattle turn-off that is depressing prices at saleyards in the eastern states is likely to persist through winter as anxious beef producers prepare to offload more stock in the face of deteriorating dry weather.
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Industry sources said it could be as late as August before the numbers being booked for sale pull up, relieving pressure on prices that have taken a hammering in recent weeks, causing the EYCI to slump to 300.75c/kg last Thursday - its lowest level since December 2009.
One major processor who asked not to be named has warned of fresh headaches for the industry in the last quarter of the calendar year, when quality cattle will be difficult to source in the wake of the selling frenzy.
"No matter which way you look at it, this situation is bad news for the industry - there are going to be very few winners come out of this in 2013," the processor said.
While industry sentiment is said to be at rock bottom, producers are taking some solace from other market signals, which suggest the current price pain could be relatively short-lived. Agents are reporting solid prices for quality cattle in most yardings and firmer prices at 205c/kg for EU stores and PTIC prices around $750 for quality female lines.
In Western Queensland, which saw prices crash to $18.50/head for secondary store steers last week, agent Tom McLeish, TopX, Longreach, said prices could turn for the better by the end of July, with most of the cattle normally processed during August and September already killed.
"We've already had a lot of fat cattle and feeder cattle go and now people are starting to sell their weaners.
"We're likely to see that happen over the next two months or so before producers are at the point of lightening their stock numbers to scrape through until the end of the year with a few breeders," he said.
"Numbers of cattle being sold have probably come back a bit, but selling will continue through until the end of June at least."
Mr McLeish said the outlook for available feed was also mixed, with some districts enjoying enough pasture growth to sustain their herd through winter.
"Around Longreach, Ilfracombe and Barcaldine is all very good - an above average season is how I'd describe it," he said.
"The country that's doing it tough would be north, west and south-west of Winton, north of Muttaburra and down toward Boulia and north and west of there - that's all very ordinary.
"In some areas people are going to have to completely destock and others will have to thin down to their core breeders. It's very serious because there's just nowhere to go - the market is very ordinary and there's a massive oversupply of cattle compared to demand, which is stretching all the way into Western NSW."
