THE mid-year cattle projection update released this week by Meat and Livestock Australia points to tough times ahead for farm cash incomes, particularly in northern Australia, a summary with which no one in western areas is disagreeing.
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For northern Australia in 2012-13, there was a significant increase in beef cattle turnoff because of drier seasonal conditions across most regions.
While the number of cattle sold was higher, the prevailing dry conditions underpinned weaker cattle prices, which caused average beef cattle farm cash incomes in northern Australia to decline slightly, to about $100,000 per farm.
In real terms, this is about 10 percent below the average for the previous 10 years.
In northern parts where more than 50pc of farm cash incomes come from the sale of live cattle for export, turnoff is estimated to have decreased 20pc, but turnoff of cattle to slaughter markets increased by about 14pc over the same period, giving a small final increase in total cash receipts.
Agribusiness consultant Peter Whip said there were no surprises in the report, but it isn't really showing what the impact will be on the bottom line next year.
"Increased sales have propped up this year's finances, but there won't be many to sell next year for some," he said.
"People we talk to are really hurting."
Aramac grazier Andy Cowper, Merino Downs, said he would like to see what the figures looked like in 12 months.
"I think all the pain and financial loss is yet to come," he said.
Mr Cowper and wife Lesley were selling off more of their herd at the Roma sale on Tuesday, but described themselves as among the lucky ones.
"We bought cattle four years ago to eat all our grass and now it's a very different situation," he said.
While most of the male cattle sold were part of his normal annual turnoff, along with cull heifers, he was getting rid of older cows as well, which wouldn't normally happen.
This is in line with the MLA report, which stated that female slaughter during April and May made up almost 50pc of the adult kill.
"At such considerable levels, (this) indicates producer intentions towards herd rebuilding have come to an abrupt halt."
Mr Cowper said the situation reminded him of the wool crash of the 1990s.
"A lot of people couldn't believe their income had gone then - they thought wool had always come good and so it would again. I'm just trying to be realistic - especially up north, we're going to need more than a good season to get going again."