THE live cattle export industry is back in full force and is now struggling to meet demand from a growing number of protein hungry countries across Asia and eastern Europe.
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Speaking at an industry lunch in Brisbane, veteran live exporter Angus Adnam said based on the ongoing and irretrievable collapse of Asian cattle herds, the world appeared to be heading for a meat protein shortage in the next 10 to 15 years.
The changing dynamics of the industry were being driven by China which had a rapidly growing middle class that already topped more than 400 million people, he said. However, Australia’s focus remained on Indonesia.
“The symbiotic relationship between the Northern Territory, North Queensland and northern Western Australia and Indonesia is quite remarkable,” Mr Adnam said.
“So long as we can keep our act together, and I think we can with our ESCAS (Exporter Supply Chain Assurance System), I really believe we are heading towards a golden age for the industry.
“Indonesia has developed world-class feedlot infrastructure and feeding systems to meet the increased demand.”
In recent weeks, Indonesia has released import quotas for some 210,000 cattle, resulting in a flood of roadtrains on the Stuart Highway ultimately heading for Darwin.
“These cattle are expected to be delivered before Christmas, which is a little fanciful, but it reflects what is happening in that country,” Mr Adnam said.
“Indonesia now talks about having 18 million cattle. But in actual fact it could be as low as 6 million or even possibly less.”
It’s good news for northern Australia, which was brought to the point of collapse after then agriculture minister Joe Ludwig’s controversial decision to temporarily suspend live cattle exports to Indonesia after a damning ABC TV Four Corners program in 2011.
India, which had recently overtaken Brazil to become the world’s largest meat exporter, was the wild card in the growth of the trade, Angus Adnam told the Brisbane lunch.
If given official access to the Indonesian market, it could take up to 50pc of Australia’s current market share, he said.
However, he said China would eventually dominate Australia’s largest live export market.
He said China’s cattle herd was also in total collapse. It was likely Australian slaughter cattle would start to be shipped to China within two years.
Mr Adnam said it was promoted that China had a herd of about 190m cattle. However, there were conflicting suggestions that the Chinese herd was closer to 45m cattle.
“Personally, I would be doubtful there is even 45m beef cattle in China,” he said.
“Chinese domestic beef production will go nowhere near being able to meet the demand in China.”
Mr Adnam said China had been taking cattle from virtually all Asian countries.
Middle class Chinese were looking for alternatives to pork and were being driven by concerns about food safety and nutrition.
“Half the pork in the world is grown and consumed in China, but it seems there is a significant swing away from pork,” Mr Adnam said.
“The Chinese market is really in its infancy and I hesitate to think where consumption will go in China.”
He said the Indian herd was under enormous pressure based on the record tonnages of meat being exported.
“India has now been a big player exporting meat for the past 30 years,” Mr Adnam said.
“A lot of it may actually be buffalo, but it is presented well and the remarkable thing is it is delivered in whatever cartons the customer requires.
“The question is what is going to happen to India after it has harvested all those market opportunities in Asia.”
Indian ‘beef’ is being delivered for about $1.90/kg boneless, similar to the price for live cattle in northern Australia.
