Qld election expected to be called

Premier Campbell Newman is expected to return from holidays early to call the election, foregoing a trade mission to India.

One minister suggested the snap election call, which was not expected until after Australia Day, was to catch Labor "on the hop".

"Most of them are on holiday. The State is really still on holiday. So it forces them to react maybe two, three weeks earlier than they were prepared for," he said.

It is understood the decision to announce the election on Tuesday was made late Monday afternoon, with many senior LNP sources still pointing to a February 14 election as late as 1pm. But the chatter changed dramatically in the early evening, with the announcement all but confirmed by 9pm.

Under Queensland legislation, the minimum campaign length, from the issuing of the writs, is 26 days.

The government is understood to be counting on a short campaign to minimise seat losses caused by public dissatisfaction with the LNP's first two-and-a-half years in office.

A historic by-election defeat in Stafford mid last year, which saw more than an 18 per cent swing, caused the government to backtrack and change its approach, initiating the infamous 'Operation Boring', where nary a word was spoken that had not been first filtered through the government spin unit.

It has seemingly worked, with polls since July showing the government's free-falling popularity rate has stabilised. The most recent Galaxy Poll, which was published in November, showed the two major parties were neck and neck in terms of voter support. The latest Newspoll, first published on the weekend, showed nothing had changed.

The government was elected with a historic majority in March 2012, winning 78 of the State parliament's 89 seats and leaving Labor with just seven MPs after a 17pc swing. Mr Newman, who took the LNP to victory from outside parliament after it spent the better part of two-decades in the Queensland political wilderness, promised it would govern with "humility, grace and dignity".

In the years since, five LNP MPs have left the LNP; Carl Judge and Alex Douglas joined the Palmer United Party, Ray Hopper moved to Katter's Australian Party, Chris Davis resigned and Scott Driscoll was forced to resign.

The Opposition gained two more seats in the Stafford and Redcliffe by-elections.

But the government's popularity plummeted. It has struggled to overcome ill-will following Mr Newman's April 2011 promise that public servants had "nothing to fear" from an LNP government and then the public sector sackings which followed the election.

Fights with the State's doctors and legal fraternity also marred its first two years in office, as did its midnight sacking of the Parliamentary Crime and Misconduct Committee on the last night of the 2013 parliament and changes to the State's crime watchdog which were lambasted by Tony Fitzgerald, among others.

The "forced" pay rise of August 2013, which originally would have seen the base pay rate for MPs jump by 42pc, while the State's economy was decried as poor, has also dogged the government, despite an independent remuneration tribunal later amending the pay rise to a sliding scale based on responsibilities.

The resulting rise was less than the original announcement, which with allowances would have seen the Premier paid more than the President of the United States, but still left a bad taste in voters' mouths.

Changes to workers compensation laws and the introduction of union "transparency" laws, which did not apply to key LNP stakeholder groups also raised public ire, as did the appointment of Tim Carmody as Chief Justice and the moving of Labour Day from May to October.

The bikie laws, which were passed within weeks of when they were first mooted, also became a major issue for the government, but time, and a partial High Court win, appears to have tempered the public response.

Alterations to the State's donation declaration laws, which saw the declarable amount increased from $1000 to $12,800, indexed, may have been in line with federal limits, but added fuel to the fire the government feared transparency.

It also lifted electoral spend caps, which means Queensland voters may see more electioneering than ever before the 2015 poll is done.

Since the Stafford loss, when Mr Newman was forced to apologise for his combative Premiership and roll back elements of his administration's most controversial legislation, the government has focussed on being "strong".

Consultants were hired to help deliver a strategy which would both sell asset sales and the government to the public. It has since settled on a "strong plan for a bright future" message which it has begun illustrating with its "strong team".

Controversial ministers, such as Attorney-General Jarrod Bleijie, have been sidelined from major government media announcements, but have maintained a media presence in their local communities.

The effective sale of the State's ports, electricity network and related infrastructure, only referred to as "leasing" by government MPs despite the strong possibility the state would have to buy back the assets at the end of the long-term lease, has been presented as the only option to solving the State's "debt crisis".

The government has not missed any opportunities to highlight the projected $80 billion "of Labor debt" which includes debt held by the government owned corporations.

It has also pointed to the release of its ministerial diaries, which, under the rules, do not have to include details of fundraisers or party or electorate business, as proof of its claim it is the "most open and accountable government in the nation" and its financial management as resulting in the State's first fiscal surplus in a decade in the next financial year.

The government is now hoping the public will judge its "tough decisions" as having been worth it.

But it enters the election campaign with the highest unemployment in mainland Australia, up from 5.5pc when it took office to 6.9pc. Revenues and confidence in the economy is down and its mining projects, which the government was counting on to off-set job losses from the gas industry transitioning from construction to production, have stalled. The increased cost of living continues to concern voters, despite the government pointing to measures it introduced to lower it.

While pundits have been predicting between an 8 and 10pc swing, with a LNP win, the outcome of Mr Newman's seat is far less concrete. Mr Newman will once again face Kate Jones in Ashgrove, but there are doubts his 5.7pc hold will be able to withstand a swing against the government.

Publicly, and for some ministers privately, a Campbell Newman loss is not being considered.

Others have begun to murmur about a "plan B", but have refused to vocalise it. Instead, Scott Emerson, John-Paul Langbroek and Lawrence Springborg are names often bandied about as the party room "compromise" candidates, while Jeff Seeney and Tim Nicholls are spoken about as obvious front-runners who could suffer from their support of Mr Newman.

Brisbane and north Queensland are considered to be the key battlegrounds, and thought to be where the majority of the campaign will be fought. Mr Newman, who must juggle his campaign for Ashgrove with his one for the state for the first time as Premier, is expected to spend at least one day a week in his electorate.

The State's unions have also begun a 'put LNP last' campaign, encouraging voters to number every square. In Queensland, a valid vote is considered one with either one or partial preferences filled out, or a number in each box.

It is not known how much of a role Tony Abbott, who is currently out of the country, will play in the State election, following the Victorian experience. Mr Newman has previously said he is welcome, but also that he didn't "need anyone else to stand by my side other than members of my team, because we have a very strong team". The Queensland result is already being considered another litmus test for the federal government.

Labor, which is still to announce major policies, is understood to be campaigning as if it already held "about 25 seats".

"That is the base number...how many would be expected to naturally fall back to the party," a source said.

"It is about how many the party can get on top of that."

The earliest the government could go to the polls is January 31. On Monday night, LNP sources "suggested" that date was correct, with one borrowing from House of Cards anti-hero Frank Underwood when adding "you might say that, but I couldn't possibly comment".

Which mean all politico eyes will be directed towards Government House, until which, nothing will be known for sure.