Being aware of where you're getting your weather information from, and knowing what data media outlets are basing their forecasts on, is key for producers making plans based on what the weather might do.
That was one of the messages from Injune cattle producer and Climate Mate Elsie Dodd, one of the speakers at the Maranoa Ag Innovation Expo at Roma on Wednesday, touching on a topic that's been been under intense scrutiny.
As a Climate Mate, Ms Dodd, who has a background in agricultural science, is part of the Northern Australia Climate Program and has been selected for her knowledge in the rural industry and for her capacity to network and communicate with producers in key red meat regions of northern Australia.
The program aims to improve the use of weather and climate forecasts by engaging with graziers, among other activities.
"My job is to help you interpret information correctly," Ms Dodd told the audience at Roma.
Showing a few media headlines from outlets with a generally urban readership, she commented that the statements they were making were too generalised to be credible.
"Be really aware of where you're getting your information from, and whether they're using real, actual data," she said.
"El Nino and La Nina aren't a forecast, they're climatic conditions.
"El Ninos aren't always dry, and La Ninas aren't always wet.
"They tell us whether atmospheric conditions are likely to be wetter or drier - you won't necessarily end up with burning plains or flood conditions."
Climate Mates are supported by an agricultural meteorological expert and have access to the leading researchers at the Bureau of Meteorology and UKMO to understand climate forecasting for use within their extension programs.
They're trained in general aspects of climate science and forecasting so they can impart knowledge and be a local expert to help landholders.
Ms Dodd used a map to highlight the many climatic influences that can affect weather patterns across Australia and said the Southern Annular Mode had been one of the contributing factors behind the increase in rain this year.
"Forecasts are probability-based - they don't get it wrong as often as we think," she said. "It's never going to be spot-on."
Ms Dodd said that at this time of year, oceans were "rearranging themselves", meaning it was not a good time to make forecasts.
"We don't yet know what the next season will bring," she said.
She sends out a monthly email containing links to forecasts the NACP judges to be timely and relevant.
Sally Gall
Based at Blackall, CW Qld, where I've raised a family, run Merino sheep and beef cattle, and helped develop a region - its history, tourism, education and communications. Get in touch at 0427 575 955 if you've got a story idea for me.
Based at Blackall, CW Qld, where I've raised a family, run Merino sheep and beef cattle, and helped develop a region - its history, tourism, education and communications. Get in touch at 0427 575 955 if you've got a story idea for me.
