Wetter than normal weather conditions are expected to last well into spring, according to the latest seasonal forecast offered by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
The bureau is forecasting above average August to October rainfall across eastern Australia, extending into northern Queensland.
It’s good news for grain farmers. Winter crops were generally seeded later than normal due to the dry start which has increased the importance of soil moisture heading into spring, and hopefully some timely spring rainfall.
Encouragingly, the bureau’s longer term weather outlook for wetter and cooler than normal spring weather conditions has been accurate in recent months.
Much of Queensland had above average rainfall during July, which was in line with the bureau’s forecast in June.
Parts of the Central Highlands recorded record high above average rainfall in July, with monthly totals of 80mm to upwards of 150mm in some areas. The heaviest falls were received north of Emerald extending through to Capella.
The wet July has set up CQ farmers with ample moisture for the chickpea crop, so long as it doesn’t become too wet. CQ farmers have taken advantage of the high chickpea prices in planting, what is expected to be, one of the largest areas to chickpeas ever.
July rainfall totals were lighter through southern Queensland. There was a general 20mm to 25mm around the Goondiwindi region during July which has cereal and chickpea crop maintaining their above average yield potential. Above average June rainfall set the region up for another season of good winter crops.
Darling Downs grain farmers saw improved rainfall during July after a patchy start to the season. Dalby received 34mm for the month. Most farmers recorded a general 30mm to 40mm for the month, which was ideal for winter crops.
Average to above average rainfall was mirrored across Australia, which is setting the platform for huge harvest.
Grain prices continued to soften last week as global and domestic markets react to forecasts of abundant supplies.
Stockfeed wheat into the Darling Downs fell by $6 to $242 delivered, the lowest level since March and approaching levels not seen since 2012. Feed barley was $1 lower at $230 delivered Downs markets while sorghum gained $1 to $216.
Forecasters are now ramping up expectations for Australia’s 2016/17 wheat crop with the wet winter and forecasts for favourable spring conditions. This has been aided by forecasts of a massive Western Australian harvest.
Last week the International Grains Council raised its prediction for Australia’s wheat harvest to 26 million tonnes, up from 25.5 million tonnes a month ago. However many think this remains conservative with traders openly discussing prospects of a 28 million tonne wheat harvest.
The International Grains Council also bolstered its forecast for world wheat production. The council raised its forecast for world wheat production for the 2016/17 marketing year by 7 million tonnes to 735 million tonnes, only one million tonnes shy of last year’s record large harvest.
Global wheat markets continued to slide on the grain glut. Benchmark US wheat futures ended the week down 3 per cent, at close to 10-year lows.
