ABARES' 2014 projections

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Under the theme of ‘realising the opportunities’, Outlook 2014 will examine emerging markets for Australian agriculture, ABARES executive director Karen Schneider said.

The conference will feature presentations on the national economic outlook, the Agricultural Competitiveness White Paper, opportunities in Asian markets, developments in northern Australia and challenges in productivity and infrastructure.

Read a summary of ABARES' key commodity forecasts for 2014 below. Follow online for regular updates from the Outlook Conference.

The weighted average saleyard price of beef is tipped to rise by 12 per cent in 2014-15 to 325 cents a kilogram, assuming a better season. Cattle prices are projected to average higher until 2016-17 due mainly to restocker demand for young steers. The national herd to recover gradually to 27.7m head by 2019.

Australian feeder and slaughter cattle exports are forecast to rise by 46pc in 2013–14 to 750,000 head and a further three per cent in 2014–15 to 775,000 on the back of higher demand from Indonesia and Vietnam.

Australian milk production is forecast to increase by 2pc to 9.25 billion litres in 2014–15 as farmers respond to better prices.

Exports are forecast to rise by 14pc to $3.4 billion this financial year. A farmgate milk of 49.9c a litre is predicted this year with a marginal decline in the next two seasons.

The weighted average saleyard price for lamb in 2014-15 is forecast to jump by 8pc to 480c a kg as supplies tighten. Export demand is likely to grow until 2016-17.

Mutton prices are predicted to lift by 22pc to 280c a kg in 2014-15 and reach 310c (in 2013-14 dollars) by 2018-19. The national sheep flock is tipped to grow slowly to 75 million by the end of the decade.

The EMI is forecast to rise 5pc to 1160c a kg clean in 2014-15 but decline marginally in the medium term to around 1133c in real terms in 2018-19 as the flock rebuilds.

After a 10pc fall to 1.8 million in 2013-14, live sheep exports are expected to average around 1.75m for the next five years (this forecast was writtem before moves to re-open sales to Bahrain).

Returns for Australian wheat to be relatively unchanged for next two seasons. A price of $326 a tonne is forecast in 2014-15 (for APW 10), rising to $368 in 2018-19. Production to fall next season by 8pc to 24.7 million tonnes.

Feed and malting barley prices are tipped to rise gradually over next five seasons. Feed barley prices are forecast at $230/tonne in 2014-15 (feed 1, delivered Geelong) and malting barley at $240 (Gairdner malt 1). Production expected to fall 20pc next harvest to 7.7 million tonnes.

A price of $505 a tonne is predicted for next harvest, rising to $590 by the end of the decade. Production to drop 17pc next season to just below three million tonnes.

The price to drop next season to $221/t rising to $232 by 2018-19. Production projected to rise marginally to 2.3 m/t by decade's end.

The world sugar indicator price is forecast to ease in 2014–15 to average around US15 cents a pound. Australian sugar production projected to grow over the medium term with returns to cane growers reaching $42/t by 2018–19.

The world cotton indicator price is tipped to fall by 15pc to US75c a pound in 2014-15 as stocks build. Returns to Australian growers projected to average $531 a bale (in 2013–14 dollars) in 2018–19 compared with $486 a bale in 2012–13.

In 2014–15 the weighted average over-the-hooks price of pigs is forecast to decline by 1pc to 302c a kg and keep falling to 261c by 2018–19 (in 2013–14 dollars) in the face of increased competition from imported pork.

Chicken meat is projected to remain the most consumed meat in Australia with production of 1.1 million tonnes in 2014-15, tipped to reach 1.25m tonnes by the end of the decade when Australians will be eating 44.7kg per person a year.