THE RECENT announcement from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) that the 2021-22 La Nina weather event had officially ended was greeted with great fanfare from a number of mainstream media organisations.
There was a lot of reference to the end of the La Nina and how flood stricken communities could look forward to a return to more normal conditions, but unfortunately, as the monster, unseasonable rain event forecast for the east coast next week highlights this is not the case.
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In spite of the official end to the current La Nina event weather the BOM's outlook is one of the strongest indicators of a wet spring that has been released at this time of year on record.
Not only has the BOM already put in place a La Nina watch, meaning the odds of a La Nina are at 50pc, or around double normal, it has also said there is a strong chance of an Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) negative event forming on the other side of the country.
Similar to a La Nina, an IOD negative is correlated with above average rainfall.
BOM records show in the five years where there have been simultaneous La Nina / IOD negative events all of the country barring the far south-west corner of WA has on average recorded at least Decile 7, or wettest 30pc of years, winter/spring rainfall.
While back to back La Nina events are relatively common, should a third La Nina form to provide a so-called 'triple dip' it will be a rare climatic event, only recorded twice before, once in the 1970s and once from 1998-2001.
There are some researchers, however, that suggest the pattern could become more common due to complex changes in the Atlantic Ocean.
The end of the recent La Nina event was notable as well, with climatologists pointing out it was far later to decay than normally expected with La Nina events, often over by late summer or early autumn.
A relatively dry end to June for most areas has stopped the immediate chatter regarding flooding, however it is set to fire up again with some medium-term weather models suggesting there could be as much as 400mm over parts of NSW in the next fortnight.
Official BOM mapping shows Brisbane, with an average July rainfall of 24mm, is set to receive over 100mm for the next eight days as moisture is blown onshore from the Pacific Ocean.
Gregor Heard
Gregor Heard is ACM's national grains industry reporter, based in Horsham, Victoria. He has a wealth of knowledge surrounding the cropping sector through his 15 years in the role. Prior to that he was with the Fairfax network as a reporter with Stock & Land. Some of the major issues he has reported on during his time with the company include the deregulation of the export wheat market, the introduction of genetically modified crops and the fight to protect growers better from grain trader insolvencies. Still involved with the family farm he is passionate about rural Australia and its people and hopes to use his role to act as an advocate for those involved in the grain sector.
Gregor Heard is ACM's national grains industry reporter, based in Horsham, Victoria. He has a wealth of knowledge surrounding the cropping sector through his 15 years in the role. Prior to that he was with the Fairfax network as a reporter with Stock & Land. Some of the major issues he has reported on during his time with the company include the deregulation of the export wheat market, the introduction of genetically modified crops and the fight to protect growers better from grain trader insolvencies. Still involved with the family farm he is passionate about rural Australia and its people and hopes to use his role to act as an advocate for those involved in the grain sector.
