Australian wheat production forecast to top 30 million tonnes

In its first detailed assessment of the 2022-23 winter crop outlook, ABARES forecast national wheat production at 30.3mt, 22 per cent above the 10-year average. Barley production is forecast at 10.9mt and the canola crop is slated to reach 5.6mt, the second largest ever.

The early break will see winter crop plantings at 23.4 million hectares nationally, slightly down on last year's record levels. High wheat and canola prices will result in larger plantings of these crops. These increases are forecast to come largely at the expense of plantings to barley in most states and chickpeas in Queensland and NSW.

Queensland farmers will slash chickpea plantings by 37pc, amounting to a reduction of more than 100,000 hectares, ABARES is forecasting. Instead, farmers will plant more wheat with the planted area tipped to climb to 885,000 hectares, the largest in more than a decade.

Queensland wheat production is forecast at 1.72mt, modestly down on last year on a return to average yields.

Another bumper Australian winter crop harvest is far from assured. Excessively wet weather through March, April and May has restricted winter crop plantings across large areas of central and northern NSW and extending into southern Queensland.

With the winter crop planting window closing quickly and unable to get machinery onto sodden paddocks, some farmers have been forced to plant crops by plane.

Domestic grain prices have softened in the past week as farmer selling picks up ahead of the end of the financial year. Darling Downs barley bids slipped by $5 to $475 delivered and back from the highs of $505 in late May. Stockfeed wheat bids remain supported around $500 delivered into the Downs. Sorghum values continue to appreciate on stronger demand from exporters as well as domestic feeders.

A sharp decline in the value of the Australian dollar was theoretically supportive for domestic prices for exporters. Domestic values have become more detached from recent volatility in global futures markets as old crop supplies tighten and buyers step up efforts to attract sellers.