AUSTRALIA'S croppers are trying to manage the soaring cost of fertiliser through a number of management strategies, however growers say they will not be able to totally avoid hefty input cost increases.
Wes Lefroy, Rabobank senior agriculture analyst, said farmers would look at their fertiliser budgets and assess how they would manage the situation.
"Most of the phosphorus is already ordered and farmers will generally be looking at applying the bare minimum, knowing there is a certain amount already in the soil," Mr Lefroy said.
"It will be the same with potash, farmers know in the short-term they can mine down into their soil reserves, but nitrogen is a different situation, with farmers looking to defer making a decision on their requirements until more is known about seasonal prospects.
"We'll see less N going out upfront and more going out in-crop when there is more idea of what the season holds.
"Even though it is very expensive if the season looks good farmers will still be confident of a return on investment, but if the seasonal prospects are a little unsure then we may see a lot of farmers take a more conservative approach."
Mr Lefroy said there were anecdotal reports of farmers planning to cut fertiliser application from 10 per cent to as much as 30pc, although he said last year's big crops, which ripped out significant amounts of nutrients, would mean there was a limit as to how far budgets could be trimmed.
Grain Growers chairman Brett Hosking said farmers were still approaching the season with similar rotations to what was planned prior to the price crunch in recent weeks.
"There are some tough decisions to be made and we're certainly confronted with really high levels of risk given the upfront costs without certainty of a good season at the end, but even at these high price points the high grain prices mean farmers can make money if the season is favourable," he said.
"The crux of the matter is that many of these costs are fixed, we need to use fuel, we need to use a certain level of fertiliser, we need to use a certain amount of herbicide, so we can't avoid these costs altogether no matter how we plan."
"I think many people would probably prefer lower grain prices and lower input costs so they weren't so exposed if things go badly, but for those with moisture you would probably still plan on sticking to normal fertiliser rates."
"There has not been much talk of marked changes to rotations as a result of the price rise, we may see mixed farmers keep that last paddock that is usually planted to a grain crop for livestock but it is not going to be a massive change, especially given moisture levels are very good in the north.
"Here in the south, and in Western Australia, where crops are more reliant on in-crop rainfall, decisions will be deferred until we get a better picture of what the season holds."
Nick Goddard, Australian Oilseeds Federation executive director, said he did not anticipate input costs to drag canola plantings down, in spite of canola having a higher cost of production than other crops.
"The canola price is very good so even though canola is perceived as a more expensive crop we don't see people dropping off in great numbers."
"The issue is more likely to be that we are coming off a big plant and agronomically suitable paddocks for canola may be a little harder to find."
Mr Lefroy said with the high cost of fertiliser farmers were embracing precision agriculture technology that allowed them to reduce application rates in suitable areas.
"We're seeing more soil testing, there is more variable rate application, there are some big benefits to even relatively small cuts in application rates with prices at these levels."
Crucially, he said he did not foresee any issues with supply.
"It is going to be expensive, but the good news is that I am confident there will be no major supply issues."
"Australian importers proved their resilience bringing in 2.5 million tonnes of urea and a million tonnes of MAP last year in spite of COVID-19, higher shipping prices and massive supply chain volatility."
"Our direct exposure to the Russian fertiliser market is a lot less as well, which is a positive, with more of our urea supplies coming out the Middle East and Indonesia."
Start the day with all the big news in agriculture! Sign up below to receive our daily Farmonline newsletter.