Queensland wheat crop estimates climb

Southern Queensland farmers have been confident of well above average crops for since early winter. After a dry start to the season, Central Highlands growers are becoming more upbeat about crop prospects after improved rain over the past 10 weeks. Although crop conditions across CQ are patchy, timely rains in June and July have benefited crops.

Growers across southern Queensland are saying yield potential is as good as they have seen. The combination of above average rain in June and July and mild temperatures have been ideal for crop growth.

After missing out on the bumper crops seen across NSW last year, farmers in the western Downs are saying they are on track for significantly above average yields in 2021.

Queensland winter crop potential is the best its looked since 2016-17.

Australian government commodity forecaster ABARES forecast Queensland wheat production for the 2021-22 season at 1.45 million tonnes in its June crop report on the back of larger plantings and average yields.

Some are already saying production could match 2016-17 when state wheat production was close to 2.0mt, based on the current crop outlook.

Wheat and barley prices climbed last week as private forecasters slashed estimates of the size of wheat production in Russia. The two main private Russian grain analysts dropped wheat production estimates by 3-5mt, citing lower yields in the Central and Volga regions and a reduction in the winter wheat area plantings by the state statistics service.

The sharp reduction is Russia's forecast wheat crop was supportive to global wheat prices. Russian wheat export quotes surged higher on the news as well as pushing global futures market higher.

Russia is the major Black Sea wheat producer, a region that now accounts for more than a third of the world wheat exports.

Local prices moved higher with the strength in global markets.

Increasingly nervous global wheat importers are stepping up imports of competitively priced Australian supplies. This was evident in last week's June export data which showed shipped 2.87mt of wheat, making it the largest monthly ever.