The winter crop harvest is winding down across much of Europe, and it appears wheat production has been the worst hit by extremely dry growing season weather and severe spring frosts across central and southern parts of the continent.
In its August update, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) pegged the wheat crop in the European Union - including Britain (EU-28) - at 139.5 million tonnes. This is a year-on-year fall of 10 per cent, or 15.5 million tonnes.
Overall, the EU-28 barley crop appears to have fared much better in the testing seasonal conditions - with the USDA calling production at 62.5 million tonnes - only slightly less than last season's crop of 63 million tonnes.
The rapeseed (canola) crops have also held up exceptionally well, with production estimated at 16.8 million tonnes - on par with last season's EU-28 output.
France is the biggest grain producer and exporter in the European Union.
Earlier this month, the French farm ministry cut its soft wheat production estimate to 29.7 million tonnes - which was down from 31.3 million tonnes a month earlier.
This represents a 25 per cent fall in output compared to the 2019 harvest, is 16 per cent below the five-year average and will be the smallest harvested area since 1994.
The farm ministry also slashed the French barley crop estimate by 1 million tonnes, or more than 8 per cent, to 11.3 million tonnes compared to its July forecast. This is 18 per cent lower than last season's output.
The rapeseed production estimate of 3.3 million tonnes was reduced by less than 0.1 million tonnes in the farm ministry's August update. This is down 5 per cent year-on-year, but a massive 36 per cent below the five-year average.
With the smaller wheat crop, French exports are forecast to fall dramatically to about 13 million tonnes. This is more than 43 per cent lower than 2019-20 marketing year, when exports were 23 million tonnes.
Despite the smaller exportable surplus, recent sales of new crop wheat and barley to China have been robust - as Beijing continues its fervent grain import drive.
According to the German Farmers Association, the country's grain harvest will be 42.4 million tonnes, which is down from 44.3 million tonnes a year earlier and about 5 per cent below the five-year average.
It forecast that wheat production will end up at about 21.1 million tonnes this harvest, a fall of 1.7 million tonnes - or 7.5 per cent - compared to the 2019-20 season.
The winter barley crop in Germany, mostly used in stockfeed rations, is expected to come in 9 per cent lower than last year at 8.9 million tonnes.
But the spring barley crop, predominantly used in malt manufacture for the beer market, will likely increase by 7.4 per cent to 2 million tonnes. In comparison to last harvest, this puts total barley output down by about 4 per cent.
In contrast, the German Farmers Association has called 2020-21 rapeseed production at 3.3 million tonnes, which is18 per cent higher than last season's crop of 2.8 million tonnes.
Germany is usually the biggest rapeseed producer in the EU-28, and the primary consumer for edible oil and biodiesel production.
The third-largest wheat producer in the EU-28 is Poland, and farmers there are much happier than their French and German counterparts.
Thanks to more favourable spring weather, the Polish wheat crop is expected to finish at about 11.7 million tonnes - which is more than 6 per cent higher than the previous harvest, and the fifth largest on record.
The barley harvest in Poland is expected to be slightly higher than in 2019 at 3.6 million tonnes.
The worst drought in more than a century across parts of Romania has decimated its winter crop harvest in 2020.
Typically, the second-largest wheat exporter in the European Union via its Black Sea port of Constanta, this year's exportable surplus from Romania will be down significantly on recent years.
Currently the bulk of the wheat that is exported via Constanta is not domestically produced.
Thirty years after the end of dictatorship in Romania, the 64 kilometre long Danube-Black Sea Canal - that links the Danube River with the port of Constanta - has turned into an economic gateway, propelling Romania to the top of EU's wheat exporters.
Also known as the 'Canal of Death', due to the number of deaths and disappearances during its construction, this waterway now brings grain exports from Slovakia, Hungary and Serbia to the world market via the Black Sea.
Romania's agriculture ministry called its wheat production at as low as 5.4 million tonnes in July, but has since revised its estimate higher - to about 6 million tonnes.
This is a year-on-year reduction of 23 per cent and would still be the smallest crop since 2012, exacerbating the shrinking export supplies across the EU-28 in the 2020-21 marketing year.
The Romanian government briefly banned export shipments in April as the coronavirus pandemic sparked concerns about domestic supply.
The restrictions were lifted after a week, but the ministry did caution that these may be revived if the drought severely curbed new crop production.
Wheat consumption in Romania is estimated at 3.1 million tonnes, made up of 2.2 million tonnes of milling quality, 0.5 million tonnes of retained grain for seed and 0.4 million tonnes for the livestock sector.
Based on the revised harvest estimate, the agriculture minister is still calling exports from domestic production at 3 million tonnes in the 2020-21 season - down almost 50 per cent on the previous year.
Similarly, southern neighbour Bulgaria has seen this year's wheat production fall significantly on the back of dry weather at critical crop development stages. Its wheat crop is forecast to be 1.8 million tonnes, or 29 per cent lower than last year at 4.5 million tonnes.
With domestic consumption pegged at around 1.8 million tonnes, Bulgaria's exports are expected to fall by about 40 per cent to 2.9 million tonnes.
In this month's update, the USDA reduced its estimate for EU-28 wheat exports to 25.5 million tonnes, a year-on-year fall of 33 per cent.
Barley exports didn't escape the knife, with the USDA cutting these forecasts by 27 per cent to 5.7 million tonnes.
The EU - and France in particular - has traditionally been a prominent supplier into North Africa and the Middle East, and the big crops in Russia and Ukraine put them in the box seat to pick-up the export slack into those regions this season.
