Grain production set to soar

Australian winter crop production set to soar

Grains
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Increased plantings and a favourable start to the season have set the platform for a significantly larger 2020 Australian winter crop.

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While ABARES forecasts offered a promising outlook for the 2020-21 season, they said weather remains a concern in Queensland and Western Australia.

While ABARES forecasts offered a promising outlook for the 2020-21 season, they said weather remains a concern in Queensland and Western Australia.

Increased plantings and a favourable start to the season have set the platform for a significantly larger 2020 Australian winter crop.

National winter crop production is forecast to climb to 44.5 million tonnes, up from the drought reduced 29.1mt in 2019-20, according to the report. This would be the largest winter crop since the record large 56.7mt in 2016-17.

In its first detailed forecast for the new crop production outlook, ABARES said New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia have all enjoyed a favourable start to the season.

Australian wheat production is forecast at 26.7mt, up from last year's drought reduced harvest of 15.2mt on the back of the 27 per cent increase in plantings and a return to average yields.

National barley production is forecast to climb by 17pc to 10.6mt while the canola crop is pegged at 3.2mt.

New South Wales accounts for the lion's share of the jump in area with wheat plantings forecast to be 1.8 million hectares higher than 2019-20 at 3.7mha, the largest in nine years. New South Wales wheat production is forecast at 8.3mt, more than four times larger than last year.

Queensland wheat plantings are also forecast to be sharply higher than last year while production is set to climb by about 1mt to 1.4mt.

While ABARES forecasts offered a promising outlook for the 2020-21 season, they said that weather remains a concern in Queensland and Western Australia.

Conditions in Queensland and Western Australia were described as average and variable. Although recent rain in both states has offered farmers a temporary reprieve from the dry weather, follow-up falls will be important to maintain current production estimates.

Old and new crop grain prices have been drifting lower with the broadly favourable weather for the 2020-21 harvest and weakness in global markets.

In its latest monthly world supply and demand update, the USDA forecast that global wheat ending stocks would climb to a record high of 316mt, up 20mt on last year.

Dry weather concerns in the Black Sea have abated and forecasters have started to increase production estimates with winter wheat harvesting set to commence in the coming days.

Australian exporters are already reporting that Black Sea wheat is being offered aggressively into South East Asian destinations.

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