CQ harvest advances quickly in hot, dry weather

Harvest is under way across most of the Central Highlands while yields have been variable. Most of the harvest so far has been exceeded longer term averages with wheat yields ranging from 2.0 to 3.5 tonnes a hectare, and even higher in some isolated areas. Frost damage is evident in some areas which is eroding yield averages.

Strong demand from feedlots and southern Queensland stockfeed buyers is keeping prices well supported. Depot bids have edged higher over the past week with most sites reflecting $345 to $360 for APW. Prices are being underpinned by Darling Downs stock feed wheat prices of $405 to $410 a tonne while barley is around $400 delivered.

Government commodity forecaster ABARES cut its estimate for Queensland's 2019/20 wheat crop to 460,000 tonnes, which is only modestly higher than last year. Most of Queensland's 2019 wheat crop is expected to come from central Queensland with southern Queensland output well down on last year's levels.

Australia's 2019 wheat crop deteriorated over the winter with the unfavourable growing weather, ABARES said. National wheat production is forecast at 19.1 million tonnes which is 22 per cent below the 10-year average and slightly better than last year's 17.3mt.

Queensland and northern NSW farmers are desperate for rain on parched paddocks to bolster chances for a summer crop. ABARES is forecasting that Queensland sorghum plantings will fall by 12pc to 340,000 hectares in 2019/20.

Farmers are keen to take advantage of the strong feed grain prices but need some significant rain events before committing to the expense of planting summer crops. Soil moisture reserves have deteriorated after the dry winter and are now seen as worse than last year. Medium term weather outlooks remain drier than normal.

Southern grain markets moved sharply higher last week as the drought consumes more of the southern NSW wheat and barley crops. Hay contractors in the NSW Riverina and Victorian Mallee are flat out cutting cereal and canola crops on the continued dry weather. Cereal hay prices have tumbled by as much as $100/t in recent weeks as more and more of the southern crops are cut.

ASX new crop wheat futures surged to $370/t on Thursday but ended the week only slightly higher at $359.