Dry July further reduces crop expectations

Crops in the Western Downs have been holding on surprisingly well after the light showers in June, but conditions have deteriorated in recent weeks following a dry July. Southern Queensland cropping areas received little to no rainfall in the past four weeks and temperatures are climbing.

Hopes of a finishing rain for ailing winter cereal crops are fading as plants shrivel with the lack of moisture and warmer temperatures. Daytime temperatures were notably warmer last week with the Western Downs climbing to the mid-20s, which is 4-5 degrees warmer than normal for late July.

Prospects for Central Highlands winter crops remains positive. Good subsoil moisture and timely in-crop rainfall is expected to transplant into above average CQ wheat yields. General showers of 15-25mm has maintained the above average yield potential.

Medium term weather outlooks show no relief from the arid conditions that's gripping much of the Australian inland. In its latest seasonal outlook forecast, the Bureau of Meteorology said much of eastern and northern Australia was likely to see drier and warmer than normal weather for the next three months.

The bureau said the positive Indian Dipole, which limits the amount of moisture coming across the northern coast of Western Australia, is resulting in drier than normal weather across much of inland Australia.

Concerns are also building for NSW wheat and barley crops, which also saw little to no rain in the past month. Australia's ABARES forecast NSW wheat production for the 2019/20 season at 4.75 million tonnes in the June Crop Report, up from last year's decade low 1.8mt. This forecast is now seen as optimistic, with analysts saying the crop could slip below 3mt if the dry weather pattern continues into spring.

East coast grain markets were sharply higher last week, as the pessimism builds over the NSW and Queensland crop outlook. Benchmark ASX wheat futures jumped $14 to $338 a tonne, its highest level in four weeks.

Stockfeed wheat into the Darling Downs gained $8 to $385 while feed barley was up $5 to $355.

Global wheat prices are finding some support on a smaller than expected wheat harvest in Russia. The International Wheat Council cut its forecast of world wheat output by 6mt to 763mt, reflecting reductions in Russia, the EU and Canada.