Australia’s 2018-19 winter crop production will fall below 30 million tonnes for the first time in a decade, according to ABARES December crop report released last week.
National wheat output tumbled to 16.9mt, which would make it the smallest crop since 2007-08, according to the report. Australia’s barley crop was forecast at 7.3mt down from last year’s 8.9mt. Canola production was projected to fall to 2.2mt down from last year’s 3.7mt.
Drought conditions through eastern Australia resulted in sharply below average yields across eastern Australia and much of SA, the report revealed. Heavy frosts in NSW, Victoria, SA and WA also adversely impacted crops, ABARES said.
Above average October rainfall benefited crops in southern NSW, Victoria, SA and WA but it was too late for Queensland and northern NSW.
Queensland winter crop production was forecast at around 800,000 tonnes, down 45 per cent on the previous year’s 1.46mt. Wheat production in Queensland was pegged at around 430,000t with an average yield of less than 1.1 tonne per hectare, making it similar to the 2002-03 drought.
Chickpeas handled the drought better than cereals crops as tap roots were able to access deeper stored soil moisture. Queensland chickpea production was forecast at 245,000t.
Poor east coast production was partly offset by above average crops in WA. Winter crop production in WA was forecast at 16.3mt, representing 56pc of the national output compared to the longer-term average of 36pc, ABARES said.
Winter crop harvest in Queensland is largely complete and the focus is on rain and summer crops.
ABARES said the area planted to sorghum in Queensland will be up by 3pc on last year to 390,000 hectares on the back of the favourable prices. Grain sorghum production is forecast to decline by 3pc to around 980,000t, ABARES said, as dry soil conditions in the Darling Downs eroded yield potential.
The area planted to cotton in Queensland is set to fall by 44pc to 106,000ha, ABARES said.
Good rainfall in October and November have helped boost soil moisture levels but follow up rain will be critical for summer crops. The latest three-month rainfall outlook issued by the Bereau of Meteorology forecast median rainfall for the summer months at between 30pc to 45pc of normal.
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Owen is expected to bring unsettled weather across the Queensland coast this week with the outside chance of some rain in the cropping areas. The North Queensland coast saw rain on the weekend with some computer models predicting rain for the Central Highlands and southern Queensland late in the week.
Darling Downs grain markets came under selling pressure last week with the increased chance of rain associated with the tropical low rain system hovering off the coast. Darling Downs sorghum was $5 lower at $355 while feed barley fell below $400 delivered. Stockfeed wheat into the Downs was $5 lower at $435.
Drought conditions saw east coast grain exports grind to a near complete halt in October. Australia exported 462,000t of wheat in October with 378,000t coming from WA and a further 52,000t from SA. Only 31,000 tonnes of wheat were shipped from the east coast, with of this coming from Victoria.