Sorghum planting has kicked off in southern Queensland in the past week as farmers take advantage of the remaining subsoil moisture. Farmers are keen to plant sorghum early, where they can to take advantage of expected premiums for early harvest crops after drought has devastated the 2018 winter crop.
Early last week, ABARES slashed its forecast for Australia’s 2018 wheat harvest to 19.1 million tonnes, which would make it the smallest harvest in a decade if realised.
Queensland wheat production was forecast at 525,000 tonnes which would be the smallest harvest in around 25 years. Traders fear the Queensland wheat production estimates will continue erode with some farmers opting to cut crops for hay rather than harvest for grain.
NSW wheat output was cut to 2.5mt, equalling its poorest harvest in a decade, according to the ABARES crop report. Victoria’s wheat harvest is expected to decline to 2.7mt down from last year’s 4mt, as the expanding drought erodes yields.
NSW wheat production estimates will remain under pressure after severe weekend frosts across the central western slopes and the southwest slopes, some of the few areas in the state where crops haven’t been consumed by drought. Overnight temperatures plummeted -3 to -5 Celsius across the central and southern slopes on Sunday night.
Growers in the Meandarra and Condamine started planting sorghum in the past week as they take advantage of the residual moisture following the patchy late winter rains. Soil temperatures have warmed in the past 10 days with the onset of spring which should be enough to get sorghum crops to germinate.
Farmers have been forced to plant sorghum down to a depth of 12cm as they chase the subsoil moisture.
Areas on the NSW border, including Boomi and Mungindi who also benefited from the late August storms, have also started planting sorghum.
ABARES forecast Australia would produce 1.6mt of sorghum for the 2018/19 season. Traders are saying the national sorghum crop could easily exceed 2mt if Queensland and northern NSW received general, soaking rains in the next eight weeks.
Weather forecasts are showing no end to the dry weather apart from the occasional isolated coastal showers. Longer term forecasts also point to a continuation in the dry conditions. Last week’s climate update by the Bureau of Meteorology said October to December is likely to be drier than average for large parts of Australia, including most of Queensland.
Grain prices remain well supported, with most of Queensland’s grain supply now dependent on coastal ships from WA and SA. Stockfeed wheat into the Darling Downs was steady at $445 delivered while feed barley gained $10 to $440.
Brisbane prices were little changed with reports of offers at $440 free on truck at the wharf.
Southern Queensland grain users appear to be comfortably covered in the near-term following the flotilla of grain ships that have been discharged into Brisbane in the past 10 weeks. Demand for the high-priced grain remains strong, with reports that feedlots remain full as they take advantage of abundance of cheap cattle from the north.
