Queensland grain farmers are eager for some soaking rain out of the unsettled weather expected across the south east later this week.
Hopes for rain are becoming more desperate as the weeks roll on as chances to replant crops disappear.
After a month where high pressure systems have dominated central Australia which has driven weather patterns across the major grain production zone, a cold front and trough is expected to bring some unsettled weather to parts of Queensland and New South Wales this week. At this stage, the front isn’t expected to have much rain associated with it, with the heaviest rain likely to fall on the coast.
Nonetheless, the unsettled weather still represents the best chance of rain in several weeks for southern Queensland and northern NSW, where crops are struggling with dry winter weather. Most of the Darling Downs and the Maranoa cropping areas have recorded less than 20 per cent of the normal June rainfall, making it the third consecutive month of substantially below average rainfall.
Last week the Bureau of Meteorology cancelled its El Nino watch, saying climatic models are pointing to a neutral outlook for the rest of 2017. It said cooling sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean had eased the threat of an El Nino.
However, this appears to have little impact on Australian weather conditions where most of the cropping zones are struggling with the dry winter. Traditional wisdom has been that dry seasons have been associated with El Nino weather patterns and the wetter seasons are linked to La Nina events. Although, it seems more of the weather is being driven by weather patterns stemming from the Indian Ocean.
While models have steadily eased back the likelihood of El Nino, most models still indicate an increased chance of warmer and drier than average conditions for Australia over winter.
The Bureau said the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral, but some models are predicting it will turn positive later in 2017. They said a positive IOD typically brings below average winter–spring rainfall to parts of southern and central Australia.
Last year Australia produced its largest ever grain harvest after the IOD fell to record lows in the middle of 2016.
Grain prices continued to push upwards last week, despite the chance of rain across parts of southern Queensland and northern NSW later this week. New crop APW wheat prices into Brisbane soared above $300 a tonne for the first time in around two years. Exports bids jumped by $14 a tonne to $304 Brisbane. Stockfeed wheat for a July delivery into Darling Downs markets climbed by $12 to $292. Darling Downs stockfeed wheat prices have now risen by $75 a tonne since December.
Feed barley prices into the Downs gained $15 a tonne last week to $285 for a July delivery.
Chickpea prices have continued to slide in recent weeks. Last week exporter bids for chickpeas into Brisbane fell by $40 to $970 a tonne. Exporters are reporting an absence of overseas buying interest for Australian pulses with Indian buyers now sitting relatively comfortable following a good local harvest and massive imports in recent months.
