Scorching temperatures last week baked summer crops and are rapidly draining soil moisture reserves, jeopardising summer crop yields.
Daytime temperatures topped 40 degrees at times which is 6 to 8 degrees hotter than normal for January. There was limited relief from the blistering heat with overnight temperatures only falling to 23 to 25 degrees.
Crops have visibly wilted with the intense heat. Sorghum is a tough crop but farmers were reporting that crops were struggling with the temperatures, but more importantly, it was rapidly draining critical soil moisture reserves.
Irrigated farmers with the luxury of being able to water crops have been saved from the heat but dryland farmers are pinning their hopes on rain and some cooler temperatures.
Scattered storms on Sunday and Monday provided some relief but few farmers received any meaningful rain. Although there was a lot of thunder and lightning, there was limited rain. Miles received 25mm on the Monday but most other areas received significantly less.
Nonetheless, the storms offered a temporary relief from the temperatures. Temperatures are forecast to climb back into the high 30’s later this week.
Sorghum prices were unaffected by last week’s intense heat. Brisbane and Darling Downs prices ended last week $2 to $3 lower. Exporter bids into Brisbane were down $3 to $225 while delivered Downs prices were down $2 to $219.
This year’s 25 to 30 per cent fall in sorghum plantings already appears to be factored into current prices. End users still see sorghum as expensive against wheat at current prices which is expected to keep domestic feeding at relatively low levels.
ASW wheat into Brisbane is currently fetching $222, compared to the $225 for sorghum. While sorghum and wheat values are close, most stockfeeders place a sizable nutritional benefit in feeding wheat over sorghum because of the higher energy levels.
Even at current prices, exporters are reporting little interest for Australian sorghum from overseas buyers at current prices.
Global feed grain imports are currently enjoying a smorgasbord of choice following bumper crops across the major production regions, making it more difficult to place Australian grain exports.
This point was highlighted in last week’s monthly USDA January supply and demand report. World wheat production was by a further 1.2 million tonnes to 753 million tonnes. This is 17 million tonnes more than last year’s crop, which was the largest ever at the time.
Global feed grain supplies are also seen as plentiful following a record large United States corn harvest and the upcoming South American crop, which is forecast to be their largest.
Australia’s wheat and barley harvests are largely completed. There is a growing pool of thought that strong grain deliveries in the last four weeks into the major bulk handling companies could see the current production estimates creep higher. ABARES is currently forecasting Australia’s 2016 wheat harvest at 32.9 million tonnes and the barley crop at 10.6 million tonnes.
Late last week, Western Australia’s CBH Grains said harvest deliveries had already topped 16.5 million tonnes. This comfortably exceeded their previous receivals record of 15.9 million tonnes set in the 2013/14 harvest and was substantially larger than the 13 to 15 million forecast following the Western Australian frosts.
