IN ITS final crop estimate for the year, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) has flagged a record Australian winter crop.
The national forecaster has flagged a whopping 32 per cent year on year increase in winter crop production in its Australian Crop Report, with its new, upwardly revised number sitting at 52.4 million tonnes.
This stunning increase is primarily on the back of remarkable turnarounds in Victoria and southern NSW, which have gone from a drought stricken 2015-16 season to potentially breaking records in 2016-17.
In terms of individual commodities, it is likely Australia will break records in wheat, barley, lentils and chickpea production this season.
The strong demand for human consumption pulses and the good season is set to see the national lentil crop smash the previous record by an amazing 74pc, with ABARES flagging total production this year at 450,000t.
Acting ABARES executive director, Peter Gooday, said above average rainfall in September, followed by mild spring conditions, had ensured good soil moisture for the critical grain development period.
He said wheat production was set to rise 35pc to 32.9mt, smashing the previous record of 29.9mt and barley tonnes were estimated to grow by 24pc to 10.6mt, just beating the previous mark of 10.4mt.
The other major crop set to break a record are chickpeas, up 21pc to 1.23mt, in spite of significant acreages of lost crop in NSW due to excessive moisture during the winter and spring.
Canola is set to rebound after a disappointing 2015-16, up 22pc to 3.6mt, the third biggest season in record.
Mr Gooday said that some cropping regions had been hard hit by seasonal conditions this year, including flooding in central west NSW and frosts in WA, but overall every state had a better year than last year.
Victoria is expected to double its crop production to 8.7mt, while South Australian tonnage is likely to be up 37pc to 9.8mt and Queensland winter crop production is up 25pc to 2.7mt.
There was another first in the report, average wheat yields across the country are expected to rise above 2.5 tonnes to the hectare, or a tonne to the acre in the old measurement, for the first time ever.
High yields, rather than markedly increased acreage, apart from the exception of the two major pulse crops, have been the driver behind the flagged production gains.
The ABARES numbers back up what independent analysts have been saying for weeks in that crop yields are markedly better than what was expected prior to harvest.
GrainCorp general manager of operations Nigel Lotz said the east coast bulk handler had received 7.16mt of grain as of December 5, with about 2.5mt being delivered in the past week.
He said there were still significant tonnages still to come into the GrainCorp system, with harvest still only hitting its straps in southern NSW and Victoria.
In the north, the Queensland winter harvest is drawing to a close while the focus in northern NSW is very much on later crops such as wheat and chickpeas that were too green to harvest earlier.
Mr Lotz said the company continued to see big deliveries from the far north-west of NSW.
“Coonamble has taken over 300,000 tonnes alone, Walgett is near that figure and there is grain going into the other regional sites in the area such as Cryon and Gular.”
He said the delayed harvest meant a lot of grain was being delivered simultaneously across the network.
“There are large daily averages which we are working hard to receive efficiently,” he said.