Just 75,405 tonnes were exported compared with 101,616t in the same month last year, a drop of 26pc.
As alarming as that might seem, it is as everyone knows, supply rather than demand driven with drought-induced rundown of the national herd coupled with unseasonal winter rain making it very difficult for processors to find cattle.
Weekly statistics provided by MLA show that 1.3 million fewer cattle have been slaughtered to the end of September this calendar year compared to same period 2015.
That represents a fall of a little over 20pc which aligns pretty well with the 21pc progressive drop in beef exports for the same comparative period.
The upside of course of it being a supply-side problem is that it will essentially fix itself over time by the addition of that simple ingredient, rain.
But time is money and as a guide to the loss of earnings that will continue to accrue while the Australian cattle herd remains in its much reduced state, it is only necessary to look at the value of lost export production so far this year.
Nine months of exports to September 30 yielded 768,000t shipped weight.
That is 206,000t down on same period last year and at an average unit price of around A$7.00/kg, that amounts to over $1.4 billion in unrealised sales.
Just how quickly Australia can rebuild its herd and therefore production capability remains to be seen.
Heifer retention will be a key factor and as always coming out of a drought, the need for cash will have a big influence on the keep/sell ratio. But that decision will largely be left until the outcome of the summer season ahead is known.
Until then restocker activity in the physical markets has probably more to do with the short-term opportunity for crop and/or grass fattening.
This should present some additional early-summer cattle for the slaughter market but the immediate supply picture for the remaining spring months would seem to be another matter.
Normally October signals the start of the traditional turn-off period in the southern parts of Australia and supply is usually such that it allows processors from as far north as Queensland to look to the south at this time of year for part of their kill requirements.
But according to Victorian Stock and Land analyst Peter Kostos, this year is different for two reasons.
Firstly there is the question of just how many traditional pasture cattle are in the slaughter pipeline.
On that point he believes a lot of young cattle which would normally be finished on grass have been enticed by the extreme prices on offer and already sold into feedlots.
The second reason is the season.
Earlier flooding in the western districts has now shifted focus to the Ovens and King Valleys and a lot of country in-between has simply received good grass rain.
With river systems and storages full and grass on hand there is no immediate imperative to sell.
The usual start has probably been pushed a month out of kilter and if the current intermittent rain pattern continues, it could be that a good proportion of whatever cattle there are in the paddocks might remain there until Christmas.
Closer to home there are reports of fat cattle in the north west and south west that their owners are keen to shift before the heat and accompanying storms potentially prevent them from moving for another five or six months.
That, coupled with what cattle there are to come off oats suggests there just might be something of a steadying influence on the downward trend in slaughterings and maybe even a modest blip in numbers before the year is done.
MLA predicts further decline for 2016
WHILE 75,000t is the lowest beef export figure seen for a normal production month since April 2012, MLA expects that to dip even further.
In its industry projections October update, MLA says that it expects trade to continue to slow over the remainder of 2016 to an end point of 980,000t of beef exports for the calendar year.
That equates to a 24pc drop for the whole year, a significant acceleration over the current 21pc decline recorded so far for the 9 months to date.
If that is to occur there would almost certainly have to be a commensurate further drop in slaughterings given the tight relationship between slaughter numbers and export tonnage as discussed above.
On my calculations that would mean national slaughterings would have to fall below 100,000 each week for the remainder of the year.
While not denying the possibility that this may happen, it would seem that industry is hoping if not anticipating that numbers might have already bottomed for this year.
But 2017 is another matter and the tone of conversations seems to be that the major players are resigned to the fact that it is going to be a tough year.
That certainly accords with the latest views from MLA.
They predict that the same factors slowing the trade this year will carry through into 2017 with the result that beef exports will decline by a further 4pc to a low of 940,000t, the lowest volume since 2010.
But there is at least a glimpse of a silver lining amongst these dark clouds.
MLA has noted that the decline in chilled beef (higher valued) exports has been significantly less than for frozen beef to each of our largest markets.
They believe this is indicative of strong international demand for high quality Australian beef and represents an encouraging sign for Australian producers.
