Longer term forecasts continue to point to improved weather conditions across eastern Australia through the winter months as the El Nino breaks down.
In its latest climatic outlook statement, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said May to July rainfall is more likely to be above average across most of mainland Australia as the El Nino conditions subside. However the outlook for May is for near normal rain for most of southern Queensland and NSW with wetter conditions in June and July.
But this rain can’t come soon enough for grain farmers who are waiting for moisture to plant their 2016 winter crops. No meaningful rainfall fell in April across the state’s grain growing areas. There were some scattered showers across south eastern Darling Downs during April but most areas were void of planting rain. This followed a dry March as well.
Farmers are keen to start winter crop planting but the dry weather has them contemplating seeding some of the crop dry.
Near term weather forecasts have been more promising for rain. Significantly more moisture from northern Australia is starting to push southwards towards the major eastern cropping areas. Parts of NSW enjoyed good rain on the weekend although the totals petered out in the north of the state, with little to no rain falling in southern Queensland.
Encouragingly weather forecasts are also pointing to another, potentially larger change next week which could bring another wider band of rain across the eastern cropping regions.
Local grain prices were little changed last week with dry weather and slow farmer selling maintaining the recent firmer tone. Darling Downs sorghum prices finished last week $2 higher at $212 and feed barley was $1 higher at $241. Stock feed wheat into Downs markets ended the week $2 lower at $260 delivered.
Despite the jump in sorghum prices over the past fortnight, exporter demand remains lacking.
US wheat futures pushed modestly higher last week but this had limited impact on local prices. The outlook for the US 2016 wheat harvest has improved in the past month following soaking rains across the production states in the south.
European and Black Sea crop outlooks also remain favourable. Mild, wetter than normal weather conditions in Europe are boosting 2016 crop ideas with most now saying the upcoming harvest will only be slightly smaller than the record 2015 harvest. European weather forecast looks favourable to mid-May, and some analysts are talking about a crop that could rival last year’s bumper harvest.