LNP will win, but Newman's gone

Griffith University political scientist Dr Paul Williams told the Rural Press Club in Brisbane this morning that Labor was expected to gain about a nine per cent swing across Queensland.

In 2012 Labor lost 44 seats suffering a 15.6pc primary swing and a 13pc swing after preferences in the 89 seat parliament.

Dr Williams said while the LNP was very likely to win the election it would lose about 25 seats including Premier Campbell Newman's seat of Ashgrove.

He said current Health Minister and former Lawrence Springborg was likely to be Queensland's next premier.

Labor suffered its worst electoral result in history because it was perceived as being out of touch, accident prone, wasteful, and tired government, he said.

However, the Newman Government had lost traction and failed to sell what was an impressive list of successes.

"You can't win Queensland unless you take the regions with you," Dr Williams said.

Dr Williams said the LNP had effectively used the four pillars approach to successfully sell its vision in 2012.

However, he said while mining and construction had done well under the LNP it was perceived that agriculture and tourism were the poor cousins.

Dr Williams said the minor parties would be squeezed. The Greens were likely to attract only 8pc of the vote, while the Katter and Palmer United Palmer parties would only attract 3-5pc support.

The three Independents would do well based on their local popularity, he said.

Research suggested up to one in three voters were shifting their vote from the LNP because of federal issues and the unpopularity of Prime Minister Tony Abbott, he said.

Both AgForce chief executive officer Charles Burke and Queensland Farmers Federation chief executive officer Dan Galligan said they had been under-whelmed by the performance of both the government and the opposition during the election campaign.

Mr Burke said it was alarming that Labor would reinstate draconian vegetation management laws. Any positive initiatives raised by Labor had been overshadowed by its approach to natural resource management, he said.