WITH Campbell Newman losing Ashgrove, the LNP leadership is up for grabs.
Treasurer Tim Nicholls is considered a front runner, but if polls are correct, he stands to lose much of his party room support, with greater Brisbane one of the areas expected to swing back to Labor.
That may make it fourth time lucky for Lawrence Springborg, who has the support of the Nationals base within the party, as well as the executive.
John-Paul Langbroek, who was Gold Coast MP and Education Minister under the Newman government, is also considered a chance.
During the campaign, a Springborg/Langbroek ticket was considered one of the most palatable by the party, which, until this week, was still counting on a late bump in support for Mr Newman.
What happens next will depend on who is left in the party room.
Traditional support bases, such as the Sunshine Coast, which includes Jarrod Bleijie, considered one of the most decisive members of the Newman cabinet, and the majority of the Gold Coast, as well as regional seats are expected to remain blue and yellow.
But north Queensland and Brisbane, areas where the cuts and broken promises resonated heavily, are expected to lead the swing against the LNP.
Campbell Newman was parachuted into the leadership from outside the parliament, in what became known as the "Newman experiment", a move former premier Peter Beattie labelled at the time "either the smartest thing the LNP did, or the dumbest".
He was encouraged to move into a safe seat, with Moggill, at the time held by Bruce Flegg, considered the favoured seat, however he stubbornly decided on Ashgrove, which lent towards Labor, but had more local appeal for Mr Newman. Aaron Dillaway, who went on to win Bulimba by the smallest margin in the state, was bumped to make way for Mr Newman.
Mr Newman delivered the LNP a historic election win, with about a 16 per cent swing against Labor granting the party 78-seats in the state's 89-member parliament.
At the time, Labor, left with just seven seats, was considered relegated to the political wilderness for at least two-terms.
But massive reform, public servant cuts, fights with the judiciary, doctors and what was considered a combative style of leadership, led to Labor gaining another two MPs through by-elections, which led to an apology from Mr Newman and a promise to change.
But public opinion towards Mr Newman blurred into public opinion towards the government. Whoever takes the LNP forward beyond February will have to re-build trust in an administration which was elected on a "Can-Do" platform, but just three years later had been told, no thank you.
